Adaptation to climate change - Guidelines on vulnerability, impacts and risk assessment (ISO/DIS 14091:2019)

Anpassung an den Klimawandel - Vulnerabilität, Auswirkungen und Risikobewertung (ISO/DIS 14091:2019)

Dieses Dokument gibt Leitlinien für die Bewertung der mit den möglichen Auswirkungen des Klimawandels verbundenen Risiken vor. Es beschreibt, wie Vulnerabilität zu verstehen und wie eine fundierte Risikobewertung im Kontext des Klimawandels zu entwickeln und umzusetzen ist. Es kann für die Bewertung sowohl gegenwärtiger als auch zukünftiger Risiken des Klimawandels herangezogen werden.
Risikobewertungen nach diesem Dokument bieten eine Grundlage für die Planung der Anpassung an die Folgen des Klimawandels sowie für die Umsetzung, das Monitoring und die Evaluierung für jedwelche Organisation, unabhängig von deren Größe, Art und Wesen.

Adaptation au changement climatique - Lignes directrices sur la vulnérabilité, les impacts et l'évaluation des risques (ISO/FDIS 14091:2020)

Prilagoditev podnebnim spremembam - Smernice za oceno ranljivosti, vpliva in tveganja (ISO/DIS 14091:2019)

General Information

Status
Not Published
Public Enquiry End Date
16-Feb-2020
Technical Committee
Current Stage
6060 - National Implementation/Publication (Adopted Project)
Start Date
18-Feb-2021
Due Date
25-Apr-2021

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SLOVENSKI STANDARD
oSIST prEN ISO 14091:2020
01-februar-2020
Prilagoditev podnebnim spremembam - Smernice za oceno ranljivosti, vpliva in
tveganja (ISO/DIS 14091:2019)

Adaptation to climate change - Guidelines on vulnerability, impacts and risk assessment

(ISO/DIS 14091:2019)
Anpassung an den Klimawandel - Vulnerabilität, Auswirkungen und Risikobewertung
(ISO/DIS 14091:2019)
Ta slovenski standard je istoveten z: prEN ISO 14091
ICS:
13.020.30 Ocenjevanje vpliva na okolje Environmental impact
assessment
13.020.40 Onesnaževanje, nadzor nad Pollution, pollution control
onesnaževanjem in and conservation
ohranjanje
oSIST prEN ISO 14091:2020 en,fr,de

2003-01.Slovenski inštitut za standardizacijo. Razmnoževanje celote ali delov tega standarda ni dovoljeno.

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oSIST prEN ISO 14091:2020
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oSIST prEN ISO 14091:2020
DRAFT INTERNATIONAL STANDARD
ISO/DIS 14091
ISO/TC 207/SC 7 Secretariat: SAC
Voting begins on: Voting terminates on:
2019-11-25 2020-02-17
Adaptation to climate change — Guidelines on
vulnerability, impacts and risk assessment
ICS: 13.020.30; 13.020.40
THIS DOCUMENT IS A DRAFT CIRCULATED
This document is circulated as received from the committee secretariat.
FOR COMMENT AND APPROVAL. IT IS
THEREFORE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND MAY
NOT BE REFERRED TO AS AN INTERNATIONAL
STANDARD UNTIL PUBLISHED AS SUCH.
IN ADDITION TO THEIR EVALUATION AS
ISO/CEN PARALLEL PROCESSING
BEING ACCEPTABLE FOR INDUSTRIAL,
TECHNOLOGICAL, COMMERCIAL AND
USER PURPOSES, DRAFT INTERNATIONAL
STANDARDS MAY ON OCCASION HAVE TO
BE CONSIDERED IN THE LIGHT OF THEIR
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STANDARDS TO
WHICH REFERENCE MAY BE MADE IN
Reference number
NATIONAL REGULATIONS.
ISO/DIS 14091:2019(E)
RECIPIENTS OF THIS DRAFT ARE INVITED
TO SUBMIT, WITH THEIR COMMENTS,
NOTIFICATION OF ANY RELEVANT PATENT
RIGHTS OF WHICH THEY ARE AWARE AND TO
PROVIDE SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION. ISO 2019
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oSIST prEN ISO 14091:2020
ISO/DIS 14091:2019(E)
ISO/DIS 14091:2019(E)
Contents Page

Foreword ........................................................................................................................................................................... v

Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................... v

1 Scope ....................................................................................................................................................................8

2 Normative references ....................................................................................................................................8

3 Terms and definitions ....................................................................................................................................8

4 Introduction to climate change risk assessment .............................................................................. 11

4.1 Concept of climate change risk ................................................................................................................ 11

4.2 Assessing climate change risk .................................................................................................................. 12

4.2.1 Objectives ........................................................................................................................................................ 12

4.2.2 Value-based judgements ............................................................................................................................ 12

5 Preparing a climate change risk assessment ...................................................................................... 13

5.1 Establishing the context ............................................................................................................................. 13

5.2 Identifying objectives and expected outcomes .................................................................................. 13

5.3 Establishing a project team ....................................................................................................................... 14

5.4 Determining the scope and methodology ............................................................................................ 14

5.5 Setting the time horizon ............................................................................................................................. 15

5.6 Gathering relevant information .............................................................................................................. 16

5.7 Preparing an implementation plan ........................................................................................................ 16

5.8 Transparency ................................................................................................................................................. 16

5.9 Participatory approach .............................................................................................................................. 16

6 Implementing a climate change risk assessment ............................................................................. 17

6.1 Screening impacts and developing impact chains ............................................................................ 17

6.1.1 General ............................................................................................................................................................. 17

6.1.2 Screening and identifying impacts ......................................................................................................... 17

6.1.3 Developing impact chains .......................................................................................................................... 17

6.2 Identifying indicators .................................................................................................................................. 18

6.2.1 General ............................................................................................................................................................. 18

6.2.2 Selecting indicators ...................................................................................................................................... 18

6.2.3 Creating a list of indicators ....................................................................................................................... 19

6.3 Acquiring and managing data .................................................................................................................. 19

6.3.1 Gathering data ............................................................................................................................................... 19

6.3.2 Evaluating data quality and results ....................................................................................................... 20

6.3.3 Managing data ................................................................................................................................................ 21

6.4 Aggregating indicators and risk components .................................................................................... 21

6.5 Assessing adaptive capacity ...................................................................................................................... 21

6.6 Interpreting and evaluating the findings ............................................................................................. 22

COPYRIGHT PROTECTED DOCUMENT

6.7 Analysing cross-sectoral interdependencies ...................................................................................... 22

© ISO 2019 6.8 Independent review ..................................................................................................................................... 23

All rights reserved. Unless otherwise specified, or required in the context of its implementation, no part of this publication may

7 Reporting and communicating climate change risk assessment results ................................. 23

be reproduced or utilized otherwise in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, or posting

7.1 Climate change risk assessment report ................................................................................................ 23

on the internet or an intranet, without prior written permission. Permission can be requested from either ISO at the address

below or ISO’s member body in the country of the requester.

7.2 Communication of climate change risk assessment results and outcomes ............................. 24

ISO copyright office

7.3 Reporting findings as a basis for appropriate adaptation planning .......................................... 24

CP 401 • Ch. de Blandonnet 8
CH-1214 Vernier, Geneva
Phone: +41 22 749 01 11
Fax: +41 22 749 09 47
Email: copyright@iso.org
Website: www.iso.org
© ISO 2019 – All rights reserved
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Published in Switzerland
ii © ISO 2019 – All rights reserved
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oSIST prEN ISO 14091:2020
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Contents Page

Foreword ........................................................................................................................................................................... v

Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................... v

1 Scope ....................................................................................................................................................................8

2 Normative references ....................................................................................................................................8

3 Terms and definitions ....................................................................................................................................8

4 Introduction to climate change risk assessment .............................................................................. 11

4.1 Concept of climate change risk ................................................................................................................ 11

4.2 Assessing climate change risk .................................................................................................................. 12

4.2.1 Objectives ........................................................................................................................................................ 12

4.2.2 Value-based judgements ............................................................................................................................ 12

5 Preparing a climate change risk assessment ...................................................................................... 13

5.1 Establishing the context ............................................................................................................................. 13

5.2 Identifying objectives and expected outcomes .................................................................................. 13

5.3 Establishing a project team ....................................................................................................................... 14

5.4 Determining the scope and methodology ............................................................................................ 14

5.5 Setting the time horizon ............................................................................................................................. 15

5.6 Gathering relevant information .............................................................................................................. 16

5.7 Preparing an implementation plan ........................................................................................................ 16

5.8 Transparency ................................................................................................................................................. 16

5.9 Participatory approach .............................................................................................................................. 16

6 Implementing a climate change risk assessment ............................................................................. 17

6.1 Screening impacts and developing impact chains ............................................................................ 17

6.1.1 General ............................................................................................................................................................. 17

6.1.2 Screening and identifying impacts ......................................................................................................... 17

6.1.3 Developing impact chains .......................................................................................................................... 17

6.2 Identifying indicators .................................................................................................................................. 18

6.2.1 General ............................................................................................................................................................. 18

6.2.2 Selecting indicators ...................................................................................................................................... 18

6.2.3 Creating a list of indicators ....................................................................................................................... 19

6.3 Acquiring and managing data .................................................................................................................. 19

6.3.1 Gathering data ............................................................................................................................................... 19

6.3.2 Evaluating data quality and results ....................................................................................................... 20

6.3.3 Managing data ................................................................................................................................................ 21

6.4 Aggregating indicators and risk components .................................................................................... 21

6.5 Assessing adaptive capacity ...................................................................................................................... 21

6.6 Interpreting and evaluating the findings ............................................................................................. 22

6.7 Analysing cross-sectoral interdependencies ...................................................................................... 22

6.8 Independent review ..................................................................................................................................... 23

7 Reporting and communicating climate change risk assessment results ................................. 23

7.1 Climate change risk assessment report ................................................................................................ 23

7.2 Communication of climate change risk assessment results and outcomes ............................. 24

7.3 Reporting findings as a basis for appropriate adaptation planning .......................................... 24

© ISO 2019 – All rights reserved
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Annex A (informative) Linking vulnerability and risk management concepts – Change of the

conceptual framework between IPCC AR4 and IPCC AR5 ............................................................. 26

Annex B (informative) An example of Vulnerability Assessment: The Korean Case ........................ 29

Annex C (informative) Selection of guidance and tools on climate change risk assessment ......... 31

Annex D (informative) Risk assessment and uncertainty: climate and non-climatic

scenarios ......................................................................................................................................................... 33

Annex E (informative) Example of Screening Matrix ................................................................................... 34

Annex F (informative) Examples of impact chains and do’s and don’ts when developing

impact chains ................................................................................................................................................. 36

F.1 General ............................................................................................................................................................. 36

F.2 Examples of impact chains for agriculture ......................................................................................... 38

F.3 Do‘s and Don’ts – What is important when developing impact chains? ................................... 41

Annex G (informative) Examples of indicators for risk and vulnerability assessment ................... 42

Annex H (informative) Aggregating indicators and risk components ................................................... 43

Annex I (informative) Components of adaptive capacity ........................................................................... 45

I.1 General ............................................................................................................................................................. 45

I.2 Organizational capability .......................................................................................................................... 45

I.3 Technical capacity........................................................................................................................................ 46

I.4 Financial capacity......................................................................................................................................... 46

I.5 Ecosystem capacity ...................................................................................................................................... 46

Annex J (informative) Developing adaptive capacity ................................................................................... 48

J.1 General ............................................................................................................................................................. 48

J.2 Requisite level of adaptive capacity ...................................................................................................... 48

J.3 Time horizon of adaptation decision .................................................................................................... 48

J.4 Levels of complexity .................................................................................................................................... 49

J.5 Level of adaptive capacity ......................................................................................................................... 49

J.6 Medium capacity........................................................................................................................................... 50

J.7 High capacity .................................................................................................................................................. 51

J.8 Very high capacity ........................................................................................................................................ 51

Bibliography ................................................................................................................................................................. 53

© ISO 2019 – All rights reserved
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oSIST prEN ISO 14091:2020
ISO/DIS 14091:2019(E)
Foreword

ISO (the International Organization for Standardization) is a worldwide federation of national

standards bodies (ISO member bodies). The work of preparing International Standards is normally

carried out through ISO technical committees. Each member body interested in a subject for which a

technical committee has been established has the right to be represented on that committee.

International organizations, governmental and non-governmental, in liaison with ISO, also take part in

the work. ISO collaborates closely with the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) on all

matters of electrotechnical standardization.

The procedures used to develop this document and those intended for its further maintenance are

described in the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 1. In particular, the different approval criteria needed for the

different types of ISO documents should be noted. This document was drafted in accordance with the

editorial rules of the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 2 (see www.iso.org/directives).

Attention is drawn to the possibility that some of the elements of this document may be the subject of

patent rights. ISO shall not be held responsible for identifying any or all such patent rights. Details of

any patent rights identified during the development of the document will be in the Introduction and/or

on the ISO list of patent declarations received (see www.iso.org/patents).

Any trade name used in this document is information given for the convenience of users and does not

constitute an endorsement.

For an explanation of the voluntary nature of standards, the meaning of ISO specific terms and

expressions related to conformity assessment, as well as information about ISO's adherence to the

World Trade Organization (WTO) principles in the Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT), see

www.iso.org/iso/foreword.html.

This document was prepared by Technical Committee ISO/TC 207, Environmental management,

Subcommittee SC 7, Greenhouse gas management and related activities.

Any feedback or questions on this document should be directed to the user’s national standards body. A

complete listing of these bodies can be found at www.iso.org/members.html.
© ISO 2019 – All rights reserved
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oSIST prEN ISO 14091:2020
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Introduction

Climate change is impacting organizations in various ways and will continue to do so for decades to

come. Organizations have a growing need to understand, mitigate and manage climate change risks.

Climate change risk assessment is key in this context. For responses to be delivered at the necessary

pace and scale, it is important that risk assessment approaches are systematic and replicable,

permitting learning within and between assessments as new knowledge, technology and experience

arise. This document provides guidelines on approaches to assess climate change-related risks.

Risk assessments improve planning of adaptation to climate change and inform the implementation and

monitoring of climate change adaptation activities. Adaptation is usually more effective when initiated

at an early stage of project development, and when undertaken as a planned process, rather than in

response to experiencing impacts. Better knowledge of climate change risks will make it easier and

cheaper to respond.

Climate change risks differ from other risks. Often little can be said about their short- or long-term

probability so a conventional risk assessment which uses statistical probabilities can be ineffective. For

this reason, various approaches have been developed for assessing climate change risks and this

document is a guide to the use of screening level assessments and impact chains. The screening level

approach can serve as a stand-alone, simplified risk assessment for a straight forward system at risk or

those with a limited budget, or serve as a pre-assessment prior to the use of impact chains. Based on a

participatory and inclusive process, impact chains approaches provide an opportunity to address all

relevant factors. Both screening level assessments and impact chain assessments allow qualitative and

quantitative analysis.

This document is relevant to any organization regardless of size, type and nature. For example, it can

help financial institutions with decisions in project financing, companies operating in climate-sensitive

business sectors, or local governments developing adaptation strategies.

This document covers risks that result from a changing climate. It does not address risks from the

transition to a low carbon economy. This document recognises that climate risks can be threats

(downside risks) or opportunities (upside risks).

This document emphasises good documentation and communication of climate change risks; these are

essential for all subsequent activities. Risk assessments provide information on identifying adaptation

actions and prioritising them. Risk assessments following this document also strengthen planning

activities on disaster risk reduction (DRR).

This document can be applied by organizations which want to carry out risk assessments (in the newer

sense of the 5 Assessment Report (AR 5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)) as

well as by organizations which want to carry out vulnerability assessments (in the classical sense of

IPCC AR4). However, it uses risk assessment as the central term.

This document belongs to an emerging family of standards on adaptation to climate change under the

umbrella of ISO 14090 “Adaptation to climate change — Principles, requirements and guidelines”. ISO

14090 describes the following elements of climate change adaptation:
 pre-planning;
 assessing impacts including opportunities;
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 adaptation planning;
 implementation;
 monitoring and evaluation; and
 reporting and communication.

This document is part of the second list item above on ‘assessing impacts including opportunities’.

ISO/AWI TS 14092 helps define adaptation planning for organizations, local governments and

communities. Other ISO standards also deal with climate change or are in some way linked to ISO 14091.

For example, ISO 31000 is an excellent companion because it can help organizations manage the risks

that are identified and assessed in ISO 14091, which itself is a specialized expansion of the limited risk

assessment portion of ISO 31000. ISO 14001 allows for integration of climate change adaptation in an

environmental management system; ISO 14091 provides additional information to support this.

ISO 14091 is a guidance document for people working in the field of climate change. It is not meant to

serve for certification.

The document is structured starting with an introduction to the concept of climate change risk

assessment, followed by the preparation, the implementation and the documentation and

communication of the climate change risk assessment.

The guidelines provided in this document are accompanied by a Bibliography and 10 Annexes with

supporting examples and information.
In this document, the following verbal forms are used:
— “should” indicates a recommendation;
— “may” indicates a permission;
— “can” indicates possibility or capability.
© ISO 2019 – All rights reserved
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oSIST prEN ISO 14091:2020
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Adaptation to Climate Change — Guidelines on vulnerability,
impacts and risk assessment
1 Scope

This document provides guidance for assessing the risks related to the potential impacts of climate

change. It describes how to understand vulnerability and how to develop and implement a sound risk

assessment in the context of climate change. It can be used for assessing both present and future

climate change risks.

Risk assessment according to this document provides a basis for climate change adaptation planning,

implementation, and monitoring and evaluation for any organization, regardless of size, type and nature.

2 Normative references
There are no normative references in this document.
3 Terms and definitions
For the purposes of this document, the following terms and definitions apply.

ISO and IEC maintain terminological databases for use in standardization at the following addresses:

 IEC Electropedia: available at http://www.electropedia.org/
 ISO Online browsing platform: available at http://www.iso.org/obp
3.1
organization

person or group of people that has its own functions with responsibilities, authorities and relationships

to achieve its objectives

Note 1 to entry: The concept of organization includes, but is not limited to sole-trader, company, corporation,

firm, enterprise, authority, partnership, charity or institution, or part or combination thereof, whether

incorporated or not, public or private.
[SOURCE: ISO 14001:2015, 3.1.4]
3.2
interested party

person or organization that can affect, be affected by, or perceive itself to be affected by a decision or

activity

EXAMPLE Customers, communities, suppliers, regulators, non-governmental organizations, investors,

employees and academia.

Note 1 to entry: To “perceive itself to be affected” means the perception has been made known to the organization.

[SOURCE: ISO 14001:2015, 3.1.6, modified EXAMPLE]
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